Focussing on growth management in Caledon
Mayor's Report
By Marolyn Morrison

To continue the theme of growth management that I began in my column last week, I will focus on the Managing Growth Focus Area.

This focus area will determine how the Region of Peel will meet the provincial population forecast for 2031 of 1.64 million; how the forecast will be distributed among the area municipalities, and how the provincial intensification target of 40% and provincial density target for Greenfield development of 50 persons and jobs per hectare will be met regionwide between Caledon, Brampton and Mississauga.

The Provincial Growth Plan introduced population forecasts for the Regions within the Greater Golden Horseshoe for a planning timeframe of 2031. Regional governments commenced conformity exercises to plan their growth. The conformity exercise undertaken by the Region of Peel will distribute the provincial forecast for Peel among Caledon, Mississauga and Brampton.

One of the key factors in determining where the population will go is the requirement of the Growth Plan that by 2015, 40% of new growth will be intensification within the provincially defined "Built Boundary." Regional staff are analyzing how much of the unallocated population is required for intensification to meet the 40% target and how much will be available for Greenfield development.

Caledon's ability to absorb intensification within its built-up area is limited, and so most of Caledon's growth will be "Greenfield" development. Mississauga and Brampton are undertaking studies to identify additional opportunities for intensification that will contribute to the 40% target. The results of these studies will serve as important input to the Region's analysis. Mississauga and Brampton have indicated that their studies will take six months to complete.

Since most of Caledon's population growth will be "Greenfield" development, we have developed a locally determined population forecast that could be supported in the context of the Region of Peel provincial policy conformity exercise. As stated previously, Caledon's endorsed population number to 2031 was 108,000.

The Town began its review of the population forecasts in 2005 as part of the South Albion-Bolton Community Plan because a number of things occurred that created a need to review the population forecasts. While overall growth has been consistent with the official plan population forecast, most of the growth has occurred in Bolton.

Council approved the expenditure of $110,000 to carry out this review. The Town's consultants and staff developed four options for population growth to 2031: 99,500, 105,000, 108,000, and 114,000. These options were presented at two public meetings in 2005. The Caledon Environmental Advisory Committee requested that a lower option of 88,400 should also be considered.

The study team evaluated the options from a fiscal, environmental, and social perspective and considered the provincial policy directions and the comments of the public and agencies. The population forecasting option of 108,000 was recommended as having the best balance of benefits and risks associated with growth. The 108,000 number was seen as being more fiscally beneficial than the lower options, and being more realistic given the provincial growth forecasts. It also provided more critical mass of population to Mayfield West and Bolton.

The higher option, 114,000 did not provide significantly more benefits and increased the potential for negative impacts and this was the reasoning behind the previous council's endorsement of the forecasted population of 2021 to 2031 of 108,000. The study team also recommended that growth from 2021 (a population of 84,400) to 2031 (a population of 108,000) be split equally between Mayfield West and Bolton.

Caledon has so far taken the position in the context of the regional population allocation that it wants to maintain the 2031 population forecast of 108,000 that was endorsed by council as part of Official Plan Amendment 203 Aug. 1, 2006. This position could change if council makes a decision to re-open the population forecasts as a result of the review of a report submitted by Solmar Development Corporation.

Next week, I will conclude this series on growth forecasting and I hope that you will take the time to read it.