Not even hometown support for Dion
One of the most endearing beliefs that political commentators and others routinely cling to is that the general voting public, i.e. you, do not want an election. Ever.

True, voters recognize that this being a parliamentary democracy and all, we need to have elections from time to time. But whenever a pollster calls them up and asks if they want an election there is a resounding collective "no," which is why, of course, the aforementioned political "experts" always caution politicians about causing an election.

There are two questions to ask here: first, why would any normal sane voter actually WANT an election; and two, does it really matter whether they want it or not once it begins?

The answer to the first question is that, unless you're a political player of some kind, there's no reason on earth why you want politicians knocking on your door.

The answer to the second question is that, despite some initial grumbling on the ground, once an election is underway the entire question is moot.

All of which brings us to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his federal Tory government, and rampant speculation that now that Ontario's election has concluded, November might be a fine time to send the federal politicians fanning across the nation in search of his elusive - and at this point quite probable - majority.

Why a probable majority you ask? After all, those same public opinion polls show the Tories just slightly ahead of the Liberals, certainly not enough to constitute a majority.

Well, those polls, to the extent they mean anything now, mean absolutely zippo once a campaign starts and once the general public actually takes time to think about just how pathetic Liberal Leader(less) Stephane Dion, aka "French toast," really is.

But don't take my word for it. Or Harper's. Just look at the current war going on within Dion's own party, where various leading Liberals are busy looking for the nearest cliff to jump off of - figuratively speaking, of course - and wondering just how on earth they found themselves beholden to a man who just oversaw an embarrassing rout by the other three parties in byelections in his home province of Quebec.

If he can't convince Quebecers that he's the man for the season, good luck in the rest of the country.

For his part, Harper, as you'd expect, continues to downplay the possibility of a November election - although he's setting up his upcoming Oct16 Throne Speech in such a way that it will be difficult for even the most desperate opposition party to accept.

"I'm putting forward a plan to govern," Harper said during a northern Manitoba tour last weekend. "If the opposition wants an election, they'll have to force an election."

Right. Except for the fact that Harper says he plans to increase the number of confidence motions in the Commons, thereby increasing the likelihood of the defeat of his current minority, and he's made it clear that the opposition will either have to support his program or ultimately look to the electorate to decide the issue.

Who can blame Harper? With Dion and the Liberals in tatters, the Bloc Quebecois slipping badly in Quebec, and the NDP where it usually is - on the fringes ranting, although feeling bearish after winning a seat in Quebec - the prospects for a majority are not likely to get much better for Harper.

You may wonder why the Liberals, given their current state of chaos, would want an election. Well, one answer is that as long as Dion is the leader, things could only get worse. May as well salvage what you have, get on with it, allow Dion his one chance, then elect somebody who might be able to turn the party fortunes around over the next couple of elections.

Normally, Throne Speech debates open the day after the speech itself and the first vote - which will be on a BQ sub-amendment to the speech - would likely come two days after the speech, or Oct. 18, which could mean a Nov. 26 election.

If the government survives that, however, the Liberal amendment will likely come Oct. 22, and if that doesn't bring the government down then the vote on the actual Throne Speech itself would likely be on Oct. 24, with the first possible day for an election (which has to be the first Monday after a 36-day campaign) would be Dec. 3.

It's not a foregone conclusion. But it's pretty likely, whatever the pollsters tell you about election campaigning.