National Affairs
Dion's weaknesses good for Harper
Claire Hoy
One of the most often asked questions - and perhaps the silliest - that pollsters put to the public is the old saw about whether or not they want an election. Of course they don't "want" an election. Why would they? Unless you happen to be working for the political party which obviously has a lot to gain with an election, why would you say that you can hardly wait to rush down the street and cast your next ballot?

So let's just get that silly question out of the way, shall we.

The fact is - as history has constantly shown us - it's basically irrelevant whether people "want" and election or don't "want" an election. Once an election is called, then all bets are off. It's on, whether they "want" it or not. Which is why, of course, this veteran political-watcher believes that Prime Minister Stephen Harper would be a complete fool if he doesn't engineer a spring election.

And, whatever one might think of Harper, he's no fool.

Let's just look at the Tory prospects, shall we? Based on the latest public opinion poll - this one by the veteran pollster Angus Reid, who over the years has never been accused of being pro-Tory - putting the Tories nationally at 39 per cent, with the Liberals way down at 22, the NDP, 17, the Green Party, 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at 10. (Note to readers, and to pollsters: why do pollsters still insist on giving us "national" figures for the Bloc, when they only operate in one province, i.e. Quebec? Does it really matter how many voters in Saskatchewan love them, or hate them? Obviously not.)

But we digress.

The other fascinating - and telling - number in Reid's survey of 2,056 randomly selected adult Canadians (between March 20 and 28) is that 41 per cent said Harper would make the best prime minister, compared to a paltry 17 per cent for Liberal Leader(less) Stephane Dione.

As Reid himself put it, "Harper would love if he could find a pretext to have an election because the numbers on Dion are really devastating. The Liberal vote is in freefall."

Indeed, the argument could be made that many Liberals, in their heart of hearts, may not mind a quick election either. All the better to get the Dion Disaster over and done with, boot him out, and pick somebody who might restore them to glory. Dion, as you likely know, was the surprise winner at the December Liberal leadership convention.

His "strength," such as it was, was based on his socalled reputation as a champion of the environment. After all, he took credit for Kyoto - even though he didn't sign it, and did nothing about it when he was environment minister - and even named his pet dog after the treaty.

Since then, however, some of Dion's former Liberal cabinet colleagues have undermined his credentials as an environmentalists. Last month, for example, Christine Stewart, who was the Liberal environment minister when Canada signed Kyoto in 1997, told the Globe and Mail that none of her Liberal colleagues - including Dion - supported her efforts to go beyond the photo-op stage and put a real plan in place to meet the treaty's ambitious targets.

"Stephane Dion was the minister of intergovernmental affairs and the whole issue (of Kyoto) was creating horrible consternation among the provinces," said Stewart, the daughter of former long-time Ontario Liberal leader Bob Nixon. "Frankly, the environment wasn't an intergovernmental topic that our government wanted to expend their opportunity on. They had to worry more about getting a health agreement with the provinces or financial issues and we couldn't get (the provinces) angry and all upset about the environment.

"That was (Dion's) role. 'Let's let this one law low.' It was never said in so many words. I think what I am saying is he wasn't against (Kyoto), but he was not a champion. But then he wasn't unique. If you can find a champion (in that Liberal cabinet), let me know."

But quite apart from the fact that Dion's self-proclaimed environmental credentials have been exposed as fraudulent - and Harper, reading the polls himself, has essentially stolen the issue from him anyway - Dion's other weaknesses as a leader have made many Liberals wonder how on earth this man ever became their leader in the first place. Good question, too.

The only challenge for Harper then is to come up with a way to force an election on three opposition parties which are all so weak that none of them want the voters to get a shot at them.

It doesn't appear likely that Harper's big-spending, all-encompassing budget will do the trick.

So what will? Law and order and security, that's what. Watch for it. An election will be coming soon in your neighborhood.