National Affairs
Dion's ongoing disastrous leadership efforts
Claire Hoy
It's hardly a state secret that the federal Liberal and Conservative parties virtually flipped in voter popularity between the 2004 and the 2006 national elections, both of which ended in minorities.

In 2004, under Paul Martin, the Liberals garnered 36.7 percent of the national vote. The Tories got 29.6. Two years later, the Tories, under current Prime Minister Stephen Harper, won 36.3 percent of the vote, and the Liberals dropped to 30.2.

Which brings us, in a way, to former Ontario NDP premier and failed Liberal leadership candidate Bob Rae, and last week's announcement that he will seek the Liberal nomination in Toronto Centre, a riding which, even with the Liberals falling badly in public support in 2006, still gave incumbent Liberal Bill Graham 52 percent of the vote.

Ridings don't get much safer than that.

Many Liberal insiders - and outsiders too - thought that after Rae lost his bid for the leadership to Stephane Dion late last year, he wouldn't likely be getting back into politics in the next election. Granted, he said he would, but he'd hardly be the first politician to promise that and find a way to get out of the commitment.

But he is running. And it says here that one of the main reasons he is has less to do with his post-leadership campaign promise and much more to do with Dion's ongoing disastrous leadership efforts.

Face it. For the majority of Canada's history, Liberals have enjoyed the luxury of power. They came to like it.

Indeed, it was their inbred sense of entitlement, which, among other reasons, led to their downfall last time out.

But despite the disappointing 2006 results - disappoint for Liberals, that is - this feeling that they and not the Tories or the other parties are Canada's natural governing party, still holds sway.

Which means, of course, that as Harper continues to consolidate his hold on power and grow in the public opinion polls, and Dion continues to fumble and slide in those polls, Liberals are already hard at work looking around for Dion's replacement.

And Rae, obviously, likes being the leader. After all, he was asked by the Liberals in the previous two federal elections to run for their party but, for various reasons, he declined. (Although he did find it in his heart to make donations to his former friends in the NDP, a reality which got up the nose of some Liberal delegates at the leadership convention.)

But when he did decide he wanted to be a Liberal, he didn't want to be just any Liberal, he wanted to be the leader.

So now, with Dion's chances fading, Rae's chances of fulfilling that ambition are certainly better than they were the night he was booted out of the leadership race.

Make no mistake. If Dion loses the next election - particularly if Harper wins a majority, which at this point is beginning to seem more and more likely - the Liberals will not give him a second chance. He'll be, what he has been since he won the leaders, i.e., French Toast.

As you read this, Dion is in the midst of a two-week cross-country tour, not that very many people have noticed.

But then, apart from his weak performance and his constant flip-flopping, Dion has given Canadians in general - and Liberals in particular - little indication that he is up to the job as party leader, let alone prime minister.

Late last week, Dion surfaced long enough to make what was billed as a "major" speech in Toronto outlining his economic agenda should he ever be in a position to implement it.

It is instructive to note that the most decisive aspect of his platform was his pledge that he would not - would absolutely not - carry out the Tory pledge to cut the GST by another point.

This illustrates Dion's main problem. To justify his decision, he cites the fact that most economists and other academic scholars - although not all - argue that cutting the GST is not the best way to give taxpayers a break.

Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't.

But the real point is that the people - yes, those lesser plebes who can't live up to Dion's intellect but actually go out there every day to buy things - think it's a great idea.

There is likely no other tax in Canada, which ticks people off more than the GST.

So for a leader hoping to win an election to rest his hopes on a promise to keep taxing voters at a higher rate than their main rivals will, well, need we say more.

Bob Rae doesn't think so. That's why he's running.