National Affairs
For all the spin, not much will change
Claire Hoy

In politics, alas, perception almost always trumps reality. When current Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, a former Liberal environment minister, bedecked his delegates at the Montreal leadership convention in green scarves and declared he was the green candidate, not only did a majority of the delegates buy it, so too did the media.

The fact that Dion was an abject failure as minister of the environment was completely overlooked. It didn't seem to matter that at a time when the former Liberal government was attacking the United States for not signing onto the Kyoto Accord on Climate Change - Canada signed on when Dion was minister - the U.S. actually was doing nearly two times better at leveling off its' emissions than Canada was.

The reality was that Dion's record was abysmal. The perception, fuelled by all those green scarves and prepared speeches, was that he was Mr. Green. Which brings us, of course, to last week's cabinet two-step by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, designed primarily to shuffle Environment Minister Rona Ambrose out of harms way. (She ended up as minister of intergovernmental affairs, replaced in environment by former Mike Harris minister John Baird.)

Beset by hostile polls - and an equally hostile media - which purported to show that Canadians are all agog over the environment, and definitely not agog over then- Ambrose's handling of the file, Harper did what successful politicians do: he offered the grand appearance of dramatic change to respond to public demand.

Applause, please.

Obviously, even before the next round of public opinion polls come flooding in, the ploy worked. Just look at two typical newspaper headlines. The Toronto Star, hardly a friend of the Conservatives (any Conservatives) headlined, "PM warms to environment." The National Post, usually a friend to Harper, offered, "Harper Goes Green."

The funniest thing about all this is that nearly every political observer had predicted with absolute certainty after Dion's victory as the self-declared Green champion that Harper would indeed make a move to shore up his perceived public weakness in this area.

After all, according to the public opinion polls, the environment has vaulted to the top of the hand-wringing list for most Canadians these days. Never mind that these polls purporting to show what really concerns Canadians most are consistently given more weight than they deserve. After all, if a pollster phones you at home and asks if you really care about the environment, what are you going to say, no? You probably care about lots of other things too - like your job and your family, but the pollster aren't asking you about your family - so these things are ultimately self-fulfilling prophecies.

Then, armed with these polls - and egged on by attacks from the Opposition parties - the notion that the environment is number one and that the government isn't doing a good job came to be seen as an absolute, unassailable Canadian truism.

Hence, the cabinet shuffle.

Hence, all the headlines showing that Harper, realizing he was letting the public down on this subject, had an epiphany on his way to the next election - likely this spring - and is now on a mission to save our planet from ourselves. Doesn't it just give you a warm and fuzzy feeling to know that, as Harper solemnly vowed, "We've clearly determined we need to do more on the environment." Here. Here. Three cheers for "action" on the current political flavor of the month. You know - and I know - that for all the spin and the pretext of dramatic change, not much will actually change.

But it doesn't matter. Not in politics. If you think this is too cynical, how do you explain the fact that Dion was able to portray himself as a champion of the environment despite the absolute, demonstrable fact that the government of which he was a significant part had one of the western world's worst environmental records over the past decade, far worse than the dreaded Americans who are the favorite target for environmental activists both within and without government? It's all about perception, you see. Appear to be doing something and, presto, you're doing something. Whether you actually do it or not doesn't really matter.

To illustrate: In 1984, Brian Mulroney's Conservatives won a huge majority on a platform of cutting spending, slashing taxes and reducing the deficit and national debt.

Four years later - despite declaring himself a deficit fighter, and being attacked by the opposition for spending and tax " cuts" - the national debt had nearly doubled, taxes had increased by $6 billion and government spending was still running amok.

Did any of this matter? Apparently not, since Mulroney won another majority in 1988.

Harper, a student of politics, understands this. Go green! It's the current ticket to the promised land.